Negotiators arrive in Antalya on November 9 with a fresh official tally of what national climate plans add up to. The UNFCCC published its 2026 NDC Synthesis Report on October 27, alongside reports on transparency, adaptation planning and finance. For business, the numbers matter because nationally determined contributions set the direction for sector targets, carbon rules and public investment plans through 2035.
What the synthesis found
The report covers 127 new NDCs representing 154 Parties, recorded between January 1, 2024, and August 31, 2026. Those Parties accounted for about 71 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.
Under the new plans, the report projects that emissions will peak and decline by 2035 to an average of 6 percent below the 2019 level, within a range of 0 to 12 percent. With full implementation of conditional elements, the average reduction rises to around 9 percent, within a range of 6 to 12 percent. The report puts the effect of those conditional elements at 3.5 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2035.
The report concludes that collective progress “remains substantially off track from the reductions required by the science.” UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in the agency’s release that the reports show collective progress “remains clearly insufficient.”
What it means for companies
The synthesis points to several areas that touch corporate planning. The agency says 98 percent of Parties now engage non-Party stakeholders in carrying out their NDCs, up from 70 percent. That group includes business.
Costing is also becoming more detailed. According to the report, 95 percent of Parties include climate finance information, and costed needs total about $3.6 trillion, of which about $2.5 trillion is for mitigation. These are multi-year totals drawn from the NDCs, not annual figures.
Reporting is widening as well. The UNFCCC says 137 Parties have submitted Biennial Transparency Reports, covering some 85 percent of global emissions. Those filings give investors and companies a public, comparable record of national policies and progress.
What Antalya has to decide
The agency’s third-quarter update to Parties, dated October 29, lists several items that follow from these findings. COP31 will decide whether and how the Mitigation Work Programme continues beyond 2026. The second global stocktake will formally launch at the conference. In addition, 34 Parties will undergo Facilitative Multilateral Consideration of Progress in Antalya.
Outside the negotiated text, Climate Home News reports that Türkiye expects to launch an electrification pledge on Energy Day, November 10. The pledge would seek a 35 percent electricity share of total final energy by 2035. COP31 runs through November 20, with Mr. Chris Bowen of Australia serving as President of Negotiations.
Sources
- UNFCCC: 2026 NDC Synthesis Report
- UNFCCC: UN Climate Change reports show Paris Agreement supporting whole-of-economy approaches, October 27, 2026
- UNFCCC: Message to Parties and Observers, Quarterly Update Q3 2026, October 29, 2026
- UNFCCC: COP31 conference page
- Climate Home News: COP31 briefing, November 5, 2026
