The G7 critical minerals plan has two open deadlines before the end of 2026. In their June declaration at Évian, leaders tasked ministers with setting a specific target for reducing dependence on a single outside supplier for critical minerals other than rare earths and permanent magnets. They also pledged to work toward recycling targets for selected minerals by year-end. We could not find either target published in official sources as of November 6.
The outcome matters to manufacturers, investors and suppliers. The targets would show where G7 governments intend to steer public finance, procurement and trade policy after the existing rare earth goal.
What leaders have already agreed
The one firm number covers rare earths and permanent magnets. Leaders aim to reduce dependence on a single supplier outside the G7 and partner countries to under 60 percent by 2030, with an ambition to reach 50 percent as soon as possible. Australia, a G7 partner country, supported the declaration.
The declaration cites 195 projects announced since the start of 2026, reaching 64 billion euros of investment across the value chain. It sets up a non-binding Critical Minerals Resilience and Production Alliance, open to like-minded partners with the approval of participating countries. It also commits members to a joint mechanism, built with the International Energy Agency, for sharing data and alerts on market stress.
Traceability starts with two pilots, lithium and nickel, with a goal of adding five minerals each year. Price floors, quotas and price-gap subsidies remain under discussion. Leaders said they would continue to explore those tools and weigh their effects on competitiveness, public finances and downstream industries.
What the IEA data show
The IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, published in July, shows how far the starting point still is from diversified supply. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72 percent in 2025 from 70 percent in 2023. Rare earths were the notable exception, with a modest decline in concentration after new projects in the United States and production increases in Malaysia.
Trade restrictions have also widened. The IEA reports that the number of mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls has tripled since 2023. It also lists a cobalt export quota in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and restrictions in Zimbabwe and Mozambique.
Those measures have split prices across markets. The IEA says European prices for gallium, dysprosium and terbium are around five times Chinese domestic prices, and germanium is almost three times higher. Tungsten prices rose sixfold over 2025 and early 2026.
What to watch
The first signal will be whether ministers publish a target covering specific minerals or a single broad figure. The second will be whether recycling goals are stated as tonnage, share of consumption or capacity. The declaration says only that collective recycling capacity should produce a significant share of annual G7 consumption by the end of 2030.
