Electrification will be a central energy topic when COP31 opens in Antalya on November 9. The presidency’s thematic schedule lists it among the sub-themes of the Energy and Transport day on November 10. Its target is to raise electricity’s share of total final energy consumption to 35 percent globally by 2035. For industry, utilities and investors, the goal points to demand for grids, storage and new electric equipment.
What the pledge says
The COP31 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge was launched in New York on September 21. Citing the IEA and IRENA, it says electricity’s share “needs to rise to around 35% by 2035 and above 50% by 2050.”
Signatory governments would accelerate electrification through national climate plans and long-term strategies, strengthen grids, storage and flexibility, and mobilize finance, particularly for least developed countries and small island developing states. They would also agree a way to review collective progress using existing IEA and IRENA reporting.
The text is open to governments. Businesses, investors, cities and others may sign on as “Supporters.” The pledge page did not list signatories when reviewed for this article.
In a joint letter to parties, COP31 President-Designate Murat Kurum and President of Negotiations Chris Bowen said electrification “has emerged as a COP31 priority.” They said it complements the existing goals to triple renewable capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
How far the world has to go
A November briefing from Climate Action Tracker, an independent research group, puts the global electricity share at almost 24 percent in 2023. It projects 28 percent in 2035 under current policies, a gap of around seven percentage points. Reaching 35 percent would require progress to accelerate almost four times compared with the historical rate, it says.
The starting points differ widely by sector. The briefing puts transport at almost 2 percent in 2023, against around 35 percent for buildings and almost 30 percent for industry. Its Paris-aligned ranges for 2035 are 11 to 17 percent for transport, 50 to 57 percent for buildings and 34 to 46 percent for industry.
The briefing cautions that the target “should not be applied as a one-size-fits-all national target.” It also notes that a headline electrification rate does not show whether the power itself is clean.
The fight over the text
The pledge is voluntary, but it may not stay outside the negotiations. Climate Action Tracker says the two presidencies are “now actively attempting to push the target into the formal COP31 Cover Decision.”
Climate Home News reported that the European Union wants any goal to specify largely clean power, and that the pledge has drawn criticism for omitting a clean power commitment. Whether the goal appears in a decision, and in what form, will be a point to watch for companies planning power purchases and grid investment across COP31 markets.
