Brazil’s COP30 presidency presented two roadmaps on November 3, one on transitioning away from fossil fuels and one on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030. COP31 opens in Antalya on November 9. For business, the documents matter less as rules than as a guide to how governments may sequence energy and land-use policy, and where exposure may fall.
The presidency pledged the roadmaps at last year’s summit in Belém after countries failed to agree on the two issues, Argus reported. Presidency officials André Corrêa do Lago and Ana Toni presented them at the UNDP office in Brazil.
What the fossil fuel roadmap proposes
The presidency calls the document “a voluntary, non-prescriptive contribution” that is not subject to negotiation. The text says it creates no new commitments. It builds on the COP28 Global Stocktake language on “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner.”
The roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties. Its core is the Belém Readiness Approach, a voluntary self-assessment built on three pillars: energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy.
According to Argus, the proposed timeline is tied to the global stocktakes. Through 2028, the focus is on institutions and long-term policy signals. From 2028 to 2030, it shifts to transforming energy systems. From 2031 to 2033, attention moves to the supply side and scaling up solutions. The text is described as a living document, and its country archetypes are illustrative.
What the forest roadmap says
The forest roadmap carries the same voluntary status. It notes that annual deforestation fell from 17.6 million hectares in 1990–2000 to 10.9 million hectares in 2015–2025, and it sets the 2030 goal against a large finance gap. Citing UNEP, it says annual forest finance must rise from $84.5 billion in 2023 to more than $300 billion by 2030.
Argus reported that domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3 percent of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided 3.4 percent. The document also reviews 30 international financing mechanisms, including the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, and addresses trade incentives for deforestation-free production. That last point is relevant to companies with agricultural and timber supply chains.
What happens in Antalya
The roadmaps will not be negotiated at COP31, according to Argus. The presidency said it wants the political space for discussion to stay open, and Toni said a further report on action agenda progress will be released at the conference.
The open question is whether the roadmaps are mentioned in the conference’s final decision text. Climate Home News reported that European countries and small island states may try to reference the fossil fuel roadmap in a cover decision, and that fossil fuel producers oppose this.
Whatever the outcome, the fossil fuel roadmap gives investors one framing of the risk. “Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets,” it says, as quoted by Argus.
Sources
- COP30 Presidency: Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels Roadmap
- COP30 Presidency: fossil fuel roadmap document (PDF)
- COP30 Presidency: roadmap on halting and reversing deforestation
- COP30 Presidency: forest roadmap document (PDF)
- Argus Media: Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps
- Climate Home News: COP31 briefing
